I knew a portfolio manager who would always forget the principle, "Don't fight the tape." The problem was he was very smart and would let his intelligence would get in the way of him making money. The principle of don't fight the tape is simple: do not trade against the market trends, if stock prices are rising don't sell.
The portfolio manager was one of the smartest men I ever knew however, he was frequently to early with his ideas. While he was often correct, his timing caused him to endure a lot of pain as he waited for the market to catch on. He often found himself having to cut back on his positions and eventually would not make as much of a return as he could have had he been more patient an not so stubborn.
In "Stock Casting" we do our work and come up with a thesis just like this portfolio manager however, we listen to the voice of God and allow him to dictate the timing (See 1.10.05: The First Principle of Stock Casting: Listen). I have found that as I pray and seek the voice of God, the more he speaks to me in every aspect of my day.
Just the other day I was about to park my car in a parking space and I felt God tell me not to park it there. Just like my portfolio friend that was trying to fight the tape, I started to argue with God. My reason said this was a great spot, it was good until the end of the week and it was right in front of a well-lit Deli so I wouldn't have to worry about it being broken into. Later that afternoon, I walked by my car and the mirror on the side on the sidewalk side had been broken off. It was a very windy day and some siding from the deli blew off and struck my car. My stubbornness in the face of God telling me not to park there cost me $700 to replace the mirror.
God knows what is going to happen in the stock market and he knows what is best for us in every area of our lives so why not pray and listen to His voice? I found out that arguing with God is like fighting the tape; you’'re going to have to endure a lot of pain going against His will.
Fast forward to this Sunday, I slip out of the church service to go to the bathroom and while I'm washing my hands I feel God tell me to grab a bunch of napkins from the bathroom because someone is going to need it in the congregation. I think that is the silliest thing, why would God tell me to do that. But I figure if I'm practicing "Stock Casting" principles in my work place I better start practicing them in every aspect of my life, so I grabbed about 20 paper towels and stuff them in my pocket. As I'm returning to the sanctuary a woman runs out with a panicked look on her face, "Can you get my paper towels from the bathroom, I just spilled my coffee all over the floor of the sanctuary." I was in shock, I reached into my pocket and handed her the paper towels, as she ran back inside I realized she was actually seated in my row and her coffee was starting to spread toward my bag laying on the floor. If God is interested in telling me about my bag that is about to get drenched with coffee, and my car that is about to be damaged, I believe he is also interested in guilding me in my investment decisions.
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